Return of the Exiles

Background

The Watch Tower accepts the year 539 BC as the date of the fall of Babylon to Cyrus II [1, p. 453] [2, p. 28]. The Nabonidus Chronicle describes the fall in detail; the Babylonian army was defeated in the 7th month (III, Lines 12-18), and Cyrus entered the city of Babylon on the 3rd day of the 8th month (III, Line 18), these dates are accepted by the Watch Tower [1, p. 568] [3, p. 459]. Cyrus' accession was therefore around the end of October 539 BC, and his first year as king of Babylon would have begun in the spring of 538 BC.

The Watch Tower's Date

The Watch Tower lists the year 537 BC as the time that the Jews returned to Jerusalem [1, p. 458] [1, p. 568]:

During Cyrus’ first year his decree releasing the Jews from exile was given. And, as considered in the article on CYRUS, it is very probable that the decree was made by the winter of 538 B.C.E. or toward the spring of 537 B.C.E. This would permit the Jews time to make necessary preparations, effect the four-month journey to Jerusalem, and still arrive there by the seventh month (Tishri, or about October 1) of 537 B.C.E.—Ezr 1:1-11; 2:64-70; 3:1.

In view of the Bible record, Cyrus’ decree freeing the Jews to return to Jerusalem likely was made late in the year 538 or early in 537 B.C.E. This would allow time for the Jewish exiles to prepare to move out of Babylon and make the long trek to Judah and Jerusalem (a trip that could take about four months according to Ezr 7:9) and yet be settled “in their cities” in Judah by “the seventh month” (Tishri) of the year 537 B.C.E. (Ezr 3:1, 6) This marked the end of the prophesied 70 years of Judah’s desolation that began in the same month, Tishri, of 607 B.C.E.—2Ki 25:22-26; 2Ch 36:20, 21.

Alternatives

Some historians suggest that Cyrus issued his decree near the start of his first year, and therefore the exiles had returned by the 7th month in 538 BC [4, p. 432]:

It is a reasonable hypothesis, therefore, that work was begun on the Temple site under the direction of Sheshbazzar as soon as the returning exiles reached Jerusalem, probably in 538 since, though Cyrus' first year ran from spring 538 to spring 537, he had taken Babylon in October 539, and it is unlikely that he would have allowed any great time to elapse before he issued the decree. According to the Book of Ezra, Zerubbabel, Joshua the high priest, and others assembled in Jerusalem in the seventh month. There they built an altar and re-established the giving of burnt-offerings on it, celebrating in particular the observances of the festival of Succoth (Booths or Tabernacles) (Ezra 3:1—6; I Esdras 5:46—52). In the Jewish calendar, Succoth was kept in the seventh month, Tishri, to mark the time of harvest (Lev. 23:33-6; Deut. 16:13—15). This strongly suggests that the 'seventh month' in which Zerubbabel built the altar was Tishri in 538, rather than simply the seventh month after the return

On the other hand Steinmann argues that it would have taken 5 years from Cyrus' decree before the exiles returned to Jerusalem, which would be 533 BC [5]:

Thus it is possible with external information to determine when Sheshbazzar and Zerubbabel led the Judean exiles back to Jerusalem and the Persian province of Yehud. While five years may seem like a long time between Cyrus’s decree and the return to Jerusalem, the details in Ezra 1–2 would seem to indicate that an immediate return would have been unlikely. First of all, there was a time of preparation to make the return. Ezra 1:6 indicates a concerted effort by those who remained in Babylon to help equip and finance the return. This was probably not a quick process given all that was donated. Second, it is unlikely that the returnees simply dropped everything in order to return. There was property to sell, accounts to settle, travel arrangements to be made. Third, Ezra 2:64–65 and Neh 7:66 indicate that about 50,000 people made the trip to Jerusalem. Organizing such a large group would not happen quickly. Finally, it would have been unlikely that Cyrus’s treasurer Mithredath would have turned over the temple vessels to any Judean who presented himself as leader of the returning Judeans, no matter how prominent he may have been (Ezra 1:8). Instead, it is more reasonable to assume that the exiles first organized themselves and their leaders requested that one of them be named governor of Yehud and entrusted with the vessels.

For these reasons, a five-year period of planning and organization is not at all unreasonable. Furthermore, this five-year delay explains why, after making only a beginning by laying the foundation, the Judeans were forced to stop. Had they returned immediately with the decree of Cyrus still new, it is unlikely that their building program could have been successfully opposed in the court of Cyrus as indicated by Ezra 4:5. It simply would be unlikely for the king or his officials to reverse policy so abruptly and quickly. If, however, the Judeans returned in 533 BC and began to build in 532 BC during their second year in Jerusalem, the decree would have been some six years old—long enough in the past that it was capable of being opposed and allowing for the opposition to persuade Persian authorities to halt the work. Thus from the text of Ezra and the evidence of the sabbatical year cycles of the post-exilic era we can be reasonably certain that Sheshbazzar and Zerubbabel and the people with them returned in 533 BC.

Furthermore, as we have already seen the Watch Tower is assuming that the Bible writers were counting the reign of Nebuchadnezzar, king of Babylon, inclusive of his accession year [3, p. 481] (see section Watch Tower Judean Chronology). We must therefore ask if the Bible writers were doing the same when they refer 'the first year of Cyrus'; could the edict have been issued as early as the period from October 539 BC up to Nisan in 538 BC?

Issues

As we have seen the date that the exiles returned to Jerusalem is used by the Watch Tower to calculate the destruction of Jerusalem (by counting back 70 years). How can the Watch Tower be so sure that this date was 537 BC and not one of the other possibilities? The Watch Tower offers two reasons, however both are invalid [1, p. 800] [6, p. 80]:

The 70th year of Jerusalem’s desolation, the last enforced sabbath on the land, would end in the autumn of 537 B.C.E. Cyrus’ decree must have been issued late in 538 B.C.E. or early in 537 for two reasons. The desolation had to last until the 70th year ended, and the released Israelites would not be expected to travel in the winter rainy season, as would have been the case if the decree had been made a few months earlier. Likely it was issued in the early spring of 537 B.C.E. in order to give the Jews a chance to travel during the dry season, arrive in Jerusalem, and set up the altar on the first day of the seventh month (Tishri) of the year 537 B.C.E., September 29 according to the Gregorian calendar. —Ezr 3:2-6.

Jehovah God had decreed that their land should rest without inhabitants for seventy years. Its seventieth year of sabbath-keeping began in the early autumn of 538 B.C., about the time of the Jewish Day of Atonement. Cyrus’ decree of liberation was published in the first year of his reign. Babylon fell before him in 539 B.C., and Bible chronologers figure that his first regnal year began in the spring of the year following, on Nisan 1, 538 B.C., which would be six months before the seventieth year of sabbath-keeping of the land of Judah began. If Cyrus had issued his decree early in 538 B.C. as his first regnal year, the exiled Jews could have made the journey back to their land before its seventieth year of sabbath-keeping began, which would have been contrary to Jehovah’s prophecy. Or they might have had to journey through the rainy winter months of the year, which would be from October through March. This would not be too good.

By the calculation above, Cyrus’ first regnal year would end on March 5 of 537 B.C., or toward the end of the rainy season. Doubtless he considerately issued his decree near the end of the rainy season, shortly before March 5 of 537 B.C., and in that way the exiled Israelites could make arrangements to travel in the convenient dry season from April through September. They evidently made the four-month-long journey from Babylon during the dry months, for by October they were back and settled in their beloved homeland, before the first day of their seventh lunar month.—Ezra 3:1.

The first is the speculation that Cyrus must have issued his decree at the end of the rainy season - even if this were true, we have seen above that this does not mean the Jews must have returned in 537 BC, for example Cyrus could have issued his decree in the first few months of his first year, such that the Jews would have had plenty of time to make travel to Jerusalem before the 7th month of 538 BC (as described by The Cambridge Ancient History).

The second reason given is that 'The desolation had to last until the 70th year ended' however this is based upon circular reasoning, since the Watch Tower only knows when the 70 years began by counting backwards from when they ended. As stated in the Watch Tower 2011 [2, pp. 27–28]:

When Did “the Seventy Years” Start?
...
So this event evidently marked the starting point of the 70 years. And what year was that? To answer, we need to see when that period ended.

References